Want to beat the Republicans? Then make Rob Sand sweat first

No primary, no practice

Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand

With Iowa being a ruby red state these days, state auditor Rob Sand will need to have a lot of things go right for him in his campaign for Iowa governor.

He needs to overcome a huge advantage for Republicans in voter registration. The latest statistics as of May 1 show nearly 200,000 more Iowans registered as Republicans (693,475) than as Democrats (503,120). Even Iowans registered as “no party” (546,835) outnumber Democrats.

And Republicans consistently turn out a higher percentage of their voters than Democrats do.

Combined, those are huge hills for Sand to climb.

This column is about the second-best thing that could help him become governor. The first best thing has already happened, with Governor Kim Reynolds deciding not to run. Incumbents are tough to beat. In nearly 50 years I’ve covered Iowa politics, Iowans tossed out the governor only once – Chet Culver in 2010.

The second-best thing to help Sand’s campaign? A Democratic primary campaign.

I’m out on an island all by myself on this point. Most political analysts think I’m crazy because Sand has already raised a whopping $8 million dollars for his campaign, with more to come in. That huge number not only will scare off many potential Democratic challengers, but it also probably helped to scare off Kim Reynolds from seeking re-election. She could see it was going to be a tough slog.

How a primary would help

Why do I think a primary campaign would help Sand next fall? I think competitive primaries help candidates in lots of ways.

· It helps build name ID across the state

· It causes supporters to open their pocketbooks and give him money

· It gets him yard sign locations that will come in handy in the fall

· Assuming he wins the primary, he gets momentum. He looks like a winner.

· The most important thing, though, is a primary helps Rob Sand get some reps in and become a stronger candidate in the fall.

In my view, Sand is an attractive candidate. He’s relatively young, he has a good look, he’s smart, he’s been around state government for a few decades, and he’s run two successful statewide campaigns.

But he has never been at the top of the ticket. He has never been in a high-profile candidate debate where opponents are beating the crap out of him on statewide television. He’s not experienced the kind of pressure that comes with running for governor.

Evidence:

I’ll cite several examples that back up my theory that candidates who don’t have primaries can look unprepared come the fall.

Exhibit #1: Democrat Bruce Braley. In 2014, when Senator Tom Harkin decided not to seek re-election, Braley, then a US congressman from northeast Iowa, was anointed as the chosen one to “inherit” Harkin’s Senate seat. He did not face a primary. Republican Joni Ernst faced a competitive primary against four other candidates. She raised money, she traveled the state, she took part in high-profile debates, and she came out of the June primary looking like a winner.

Come that fall, the station where I worked produced the first of three TV debates between Braley and Ernst. It was in front of a live audience at Simpson College in Indianola. As I talked with Braley beforehand, I realized he was uptight and nervous. Ernst was calm, cool and prepared. Once the debate hit air, Braley WAS uptight and nervous while Ernst looked like she’d been there before. Because she had. Calm, on point. She won the debate hands down, as she did the next two debates.

Exhibit #2: Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Due to Biden’s late withdrawal, Harris and Walz were handed the nomination in July of last year without having to fight their way through primaries and caucuses. And it showed. Their campaign interviews were wooden and over-rehearsed. Although Harris clearly clobbered Trump in their only debate, she did herself no favors in high-profile interviews, coming across at times as indecisive. And Walz, who is as natural a politician as I’ve seen, was kept in a box much of that campaign and not allowed to be his high school teacher Minnesota dad self.

Get your reps in

Back to Rob Sand for governor. I realize primaries cost money that could be put to use in the fall. But Rob Sand’s biggest problem is not going to be money. He has plenty and has access to plenty more.

Practice, practice, practice. Learn what answers work, and which ones don’t. Make mistakes. Learn from those mistakes so you don’t repeat them in the fall. Figure out which campaign staffers thrive when the heat is on and which ones wilt. Get your name out there. Come out of June looking like a winner.

On the Republican side, there will be a heated primary between AG Brenna Bird and any number of other Republicans. She’s going to get her reps in.

We badly need to break up the Republican trifecta that has taken our state backwards in so many areas. So please, please, please – somebody run against Rob Sand in the Democratic primary. He might not thank you today, but come fall of 2026, he might realize it’s the second-best thing that ever happened to him. And he might invite you to the inaugural ball.

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